The Anatomy of an Indian General Election

Pankaj Sharma and Saurav Sanyal

Anatomy of Indian General Elections is the concluding part of Trilogy on 2019 Elections. The first two chartbusters “2019: Will Modi Win?” and “Rafale, Raga, Reuniting Forces for 2019’’ drew attention to the risks involved for the incumbent government and the chances for Congress in 2019 by predicting the wins in Assembly Elections in Rajasthan, MP and Chattisgarh. This book is the third and last in trilogy on upcoming 17th Lok Sabha Elections. There are several key events and political developments over previous twelve months which indicate that the race for 2019 will not be a one sided contest. This is also likely to be one of the most bitterly fought elections in the electoral history of India as there is a high degree of uncertainty on the post-poll political picture which may emerge. But, which are the factors that will influence the electoral verdict in 2019? In this book, we look at the key issues which would determine if Modi would get his second term as the PM of India.

Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi is one of the most successful and popular politicians India has seen in the recent decades. In Gujarat as Chief Minister, he had won three successive elections in 2002, 2007 and 2012. The President of BJP Amit Shah is one of the most organized and hard working political leaders across political spectrum in over a decade. Together they are known for their meticulous planning and sharp instincts on sensing the public mood, which are the issues they will focus on? BJP is already more aggressive on the popular religious issues. The debate on citizenship bill in North-East, the issue of illegal migrants and entry of Rohingya Muslims from Myanmar and Triple Talaq for Muslim women are prominent examples.

Pankaj Sharma and Saurav Sanyal Pankaj Sharma is an engineer (IIT Kharagpur, 1999) and MBA (FMS Delhi, 2003) with 15+ years of diverse work experience in various leadership roles with global investment banks, Indian equity brokerages, State Owned Enterprises and startups. Pankaj has also been a regular contributor in print and electronic media.

Saurav Sanyal has donned many hats successfully in an illustrious career so far. He has been a Research Officer, Business Leader, Sales & Marketing Professional and Organisation Builder at MNC’s. He is currently Dean Corporate Relations and Associate Professor at IILM Graduate School of Management.

Contents

Acknowledgements

Introduction

1. How Strong Will the POLARISATION Be?
2. How Is Modi Evaluated on “INTENT”?
3. How “UNITED” Will the Opposition Be?
4. Will 2019 Be like CRICKET or TENNIS?
5. Can Opposition Find an ELECTION AGENDA?
6. Who Will Control the SMARTPHONE?
7. Will Upper Castes and Middle Class Be UNHAPPY with BJP?
8. Will ECONOMY Be a Headwind for BJP?
Epilogue
Notes and References
About the Authors