COERCIVE DIPLOMACY AGAINST PAKISTAN: Options and Effectiveness in Non-Nuclear Conflict Space in Current Times

Akshat Upadhyay

India and Pakistan achieved unofficial nuclear power status in 1998 with Pakistan attempting to use nuclear blackmail in fighting for a limited slice of territory in Kargil. Thus has begun an uneasy and fragile peace, punctuated by harsh rhetoric, proxy war and unsuccessful attempts at stability in the Indian subcontinent. Pakistan continues to use terror as a form of state policy while instigating the ‘Generation Next’ in the troubled paradise of Jammu and Kashmir. Of late, a disturbing trend, that of targeting camps and garrisons of security forces has emerged, intermediate-level attacks that seem to propagate the notion of an insurgency while keeping the level and nature of damage to a level which is not considered incentive enough to start an Indian mobilisation. However, Uri became an exception and a way for the Indian government to start applying holistic coercive diplomacy measures, termed in the field of International Relations as compellence. What has been the result? How credible have those efforts been? Is there a case for improving upon existing measures or are alternative options available? This book aims to answer these questions, in the process, raising pertinent ones.

Akshat Upadhyay Maj Akshat Upadhyay is a serving army officer and holds a double Master’s degree in History and Political Science as well as an MPhil in Defence and Strategic Studies from Punjab University. He has won the second prize in the United Services Institution of India Gold Medal Essay Competition in 2011. He is the author of numerous articles published in Indian magazines with global circulation and has written extensively on terrorism, social media and social movements, South Asia and the Middle East. One of his articles on lone wolf terrorism, published by CLAWS as Manekshaw Paper No 69, has been received very warmly by institutions such as George Washington University, George C Marshall Centre and the NATO Defence College.

Contents

Introduction

1. Theoretical Construct of Coercive Diplomacy and Various Models of Deterrence and Compellence
2. Coercion in The Context of Indo-Pakistan Relations (Pre- and Post-Kargil)
3. Analysis of Primary Data
4. Efficacy of Coercive Diplomacy Measures Taken against Pakistan and Critical Analysis of Options Available

Conclusion and Recommendations
Appendixes
Bibliography