The Global Nuclear Landscape: Energy, Non-proliferation and Disarmament

Edited by: Manpreet Sethi

Like shifting sands of a desert, the global nuclear landscape changes every few years across its three main constituents–nuclear energy, non-proliferation and disarmament. Each of these has seen phases of cautious optimism, deep scepticism and outright pessimism over the last two decades. This book offers a bird’s eye view on all the three, even as the individual authors offer a worm’s eye view on each specific topic within the larger ambit.

The first section of the book examines developments in the nuclear energy sector. A broad-brush scan of the contemporary drivers and challenges for nuclear energy at global level, as also that of India, reveals a positive trend line. There is also cautious optimism around the concept, developments and prospects of small modular reactors. It remains to be seen how effectively and quickly licensing and regulation issues are resolved for the new concepts to become commercially viable.

The second part of the book is devoted to non-proliferation. Vertical nuclear and missile proliferation amongst nuclear armed states, and horizontal proliferation cases of Iran and possibilities in East Asia are considered. Nuclear terrorism and the state of the NPT are also examined. Collectively, these issues reflect a mood of pessimism on non-proliferation at this juncture.

Neither is there much to cheer on nuclear disarmament. The last section of the book examines the consequences of use of nuclear weapons, concepts of CBMs and arms control, and recent disarmament initiatives. A tentative exploration of the prospects of disarmament in the wake of Russia-Ukraine conflict is also undertaken. A hope that good sense will prevail, and fear that it might not, seem to coexist at this moment.

It is in India’s interest to proactively shape the landscape across these three elements. The book seeks to provide the basis to do so.

Edited by: Manpreet Sethi

Dr ManpreetSethi, Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Air Power Studies (CAPS), New Delhi, has been leading the project on Nuclear Security at the Centre for the last 20 years. She is an expert on the entire spectrum of nuclear issues ranging from nuclear energy, strategy, non-proliferation, disarmament, arms control and ballistic missile defence. She has authored, edited and co-authored eight books and three monographs. She also has published over 100 papers in books/academic journals of repute. Her book Nuclear Strategy: India’s March towards Credible Deterrence (2009) is deemed essential reading at many colleges and armed forces institutions.Sethi lectures at the National Defence College and other leading establishments of Indian Armed Forces, Police and Foreign Services, as also at various colleges and Universities. She is a regular participant in flagship nuclear conferences of USA, Russia, European Union, China and India. She has contributed to several United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) projects. She was invited in 2021 to make a presentation before the UN Secretary General’s Advisory Board on Disarmament Matters. She was Member, Prime Minister’s Informal Group on Disarmament in 2012, and on Executive Board of the Indian Pugwash Society. She is currently on Board of Directors of the Asia Pacific Leadership Network (APLN) and Co-chair, Women in Nuclear - India.

She is recipient of the prestigious K Subrahmanyam award (2014) and has been commended by the Chief of the Air Staff (2020) for her dedication and professional ability.

Contents

Preface

Contributors

Introduction

Nuclear Energy

1. Current Nuclear Energy Reality: Drivers and Challenges
ManpreetSethi

2. India’s Nuclear Energy Scenario
Zoya Akhter

3. Emergence of Small Modular Reactors: Challenges and Opportunities
ManpreetSethi and Zoya Akhter

4. Military Applications of Nuclear Power Plants
Anil Chopra

Nuclear Non-proliferation

5. Nuclear Doctrines of Great Powers and Vertical Nuclear Proliferation Trends
Abhishek Saxena

6. The State of the NPT: Challenges Ahead
KanicaRakhra

7. The Iran Nuclear Imbroglio: End in Sight?
Sheel Kant Sharma

8. Nuclear Proliferation in East Asia: Will AUKUS Cause a New Arms Race?
Jagannath Panda

9. Contemporary Missile Developments in United States and Russia post-INF Treaty
Silky Kaur

10. Nuclear Missile Development Trends in Southern Asia: An Analysis from 2011 to 2021
NasimaKhatoon

11. The Threat of N-Terrorism: A Contemporary Assessment
Sitakanta Mishra

Nuclear Disarmament

12. Understanding Deterrence Breakdown in the Indian Context
Prakash Menon

13. Mapping Arms Control and CBMs: From Cold War Years to Present Times
R. Rajaraman

14. The Current State of Play in Nuclear Disarmament
Swaran Singh and ReshmiKazi

15. Prospects of Nuclear Disarmament after the Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Could New Opportunities Arise?
ManpreetSethi

Index