Opportunities for India in a Changing World

Dr Arvind Gupta

We are living in an era of extraordinarily fast paced change. The Covid-19 pandemic has turned the world upside down and deepened political, economic and social uncertainties.

The post-World War order set up in 1945 by the Western countries is under tremendous strain. The contour of the new order is not yet clear. With the rise of China, the seeming retreat of the US from Eurasia, the deepening schism between Russia and the West, growing closeness of Russia and China, the Cold War rivalries are back. A new balance of power is beginning to shape up.

The world is also witnessing a host of other destabilising trends: climate change and extreme weather events, terrorism and radicalisation, pandemics, migrations, demography, to name a few. They are testing the resilience of even the most powerful countries.

India should be prepared to deal with a highly challenging security environment that will become even more complex in future. It should lookout for opportunities in a world that is being reformatted.

A long-enduring civilisation, India has weathered the storms of disruption on numerous occasions and will be able to do so again provided it understands the nature of change and undertakes reforms to be prepared for a new, uncertain world. The concept of self-reliance or Atmanirbhar Bharat, propounded by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which builds on India’s inherent strengths, provides a framework to deal with an uncertain world.

This book is an attempt to understand the changes in the world order, the contradictions of globalisation, the thought processes of the US, Europe, Russia, China, Japan and India; the impact of technology on lives; the connection between religion and violence, the foreign policy of India and the way India can move ahead.

Dr Arvind Gupta is the Director of the Vivekananda International Foundation, a Delhi based independent think tank dedicated to analysing India’s external and internal security environment and offering inputs to shape policies and response strategies. Before joining the VIF in 2017, he was the Deputy National Security Adviser, National Security Council Secretariat (2014-17) and Director General of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi (2012-2014). A former member of the Indian Foreign Service, he served in the Indian missions in Moscow, London and Ankara and worked in different capacities in the Ministry of External Affairs and the National Security Council Secretariat. He has written and edited several books. His book How India Manages Its National Security (Penguin India) was published in 2018. He coedited the book India’s Foreign Policy: Surviving in a Turbulent World (Sage) in 2020 and Aatmanirbhar Bharat: A Vibrant and Strong India (Aryan Books) in 2021.

Contents

Acknowledgements

Introduction

Abbreviations

1. The Changing World Order
2. Contradictions of Globalisation
3. Technology and Globalisation
4. Worldviews of the US, Europe and Russia
5. Worldviews of China, Japan and India
6. Religion and Violence
7. India and the Emerging World Order
8. Atmanirbhar Bharat: A Blueprint for New India
9. Epilogue: The Return of Great Power Rivalaries Suggested Reading

Index