2019: Will Modi Win?
(Now available with an updated supplement)

Pankaj Sharma and Saurav Sanyal

Political stability is an essential requirement for providing the right environment needed for peaceful communities and the vision of political leadership plays a key role in growth of a country. The NDA Govt has already completed its first three years and BJP is certainly on a rise. With a massive mandate in Uttar Pradesh and an expanding footprint across the country, it seems impossible to stop the Modi juggernaut in 2019. But, is the reality that simple and straight forward?

In 2014, BJP was able to win a simple majority of 282 seats with the least number of percentage vote-share in the history of independent India because opposition vote got fragmented. Opposition is unlikely to repeat this mistake in 2019. Also, there was a massive anti-incumbency wave against UPA in 2014 and this tail wind will not be available for BJP in 2019. There are many states which only have a nominal presence of BJP and the party is not fighting more than 350-360 seats practically speaking.
In this book, we look at the factors which would determine if Modi would get another term. Will Modi return or will it be a coalition Govt in Delhi in 2019. Or BJP’s dependence on allies would be so high in the next term that the “compulsions of coalition politics” will come to the fore. Read on to get an impartial and non-ideological take on what the future holds for the country from the perspective of 2019 general elections.

Pankaj Sharma and Saurav Sanyal

Pankaj Sharma is an engineer (IIT Kharagpur, 1999) and MBA (FMS Delhi, 2003) with 15+ years of diverse work experience in various leadership roles with global investment banks, Indian equity brokerages, State Owned Enterprises and startups. Pankaj has also been a regular contributor in print and electronic media.

Saurav Sanyal has donned many hats in an illustrious career so far. He has been a Researcher, Sales and Marketing Professional and Organisation Builder. He is a seasoned professional (MBA from FMS Delhi, 2003) and researcher (M Sc at IIT Madras 1998) with a flair for keen observation and an academic bent of mind.

Contents

Acknowledgements
The Story behind this Book – From Pankaj
Introduction

1. The Opposition will be Better Prepared for Modi
2. 2014 Mandate: UPA - The Story of Self Goals
3. The Role of Economy in Elections
4. 2014 Mandate: BJP’s Statistical Peak?
5. Modi’s Pinnacle: Was it 2014 or Will it be 2019?
6. Anti-Incumbency Against State Governments
7. The Implications for 2019
8. The Key Takeaways for BJP for 2019
9. The Key Takeaways for Opposition for 2019

Epilogue