Emerging Nuclear Dynamics in West Asia and Northeast Asia: Exploring New Proliferation Potential

Abhishek Verma

Emerging Nuclear Dynamics in West Asia and Northeast Asia offers a rigorous and timely analysis of nuclear proliferation risks in two of the world’s most volatile regions in terms of nuclear proliferation risks. The monograph examines whether altered threat perceptions, material capabilities, commitment to Non-proliferation norms and doubts about extended deterrence are driving states in the regions towards nuclear hedging or overt weaponisation. Using a strong theoretical framework that blends realism, constructivism and Vipin Narang’s Proliferation Strategy Theory, the author assesses the nuclear latency of Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, Egypt, the UAE, Japan and South Korea. By systematically analysing material capabilities, strategic rationale, domestic politics, alliance dynamics, and treaty commitments, the monograph argues that contemporary proliferation risks are the outcome of precautionary intent and calculated restraint. It is a valuable contribution to nuclear studies and regional security debates.

Abhishek Verma

Dr. Abhishek Verma is a Research Analyst at the Internal Security Centre at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), New Delhi. He has completed his PhD from the Centre for International Politics, Organisation and Disarmament (CIPOD), SIS, JNU. He has Masters in International Studies from the School of International Studies (SIS), Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), New Delhi. His doctoral thesis focused on “Oligopoly in International Relations: A Study of 50 years of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty”. His areas of research include International security, nuclear & arms control issues and US-China Great power rivalry. Before joining MP-IDSA, Mr Verma had done internship in several IR think tanks like The Kootneeti, The Takshashila Institution (China Studies Program), Chennai Centre for China Studies (C3S) and Foreign Policy Research Centre. His publications include multiple research articles, occasional papers and monographs on China, great power rivalry, arms control and nuclear issues. He has also reviewed several books for Journals like Strategic Analysis, Journal of Strategic Security, International Studies and Millennial Asia.

Contents

Foreword

Preface

Acknowledgments

Abbreviations

Tables and Figures

1. Saudi Arabia: Caught in the Dynamics of Uncertainties
2. The United Arab Emirates and Egypt: The Duo on the Non-Nuclear Course
3. Turkiye: A Rising Star Amidst Incumbent Nuclear Giants
4. Japan: A Threshold Nuclear Power
5. South Korea: A Reluctant Nuclear Aspirant
6. Conclusion